Research Papers in Progress

Specification Tests Robust to Multiple Instabilities

Abstract: I develop a hypothesis test for model evaluation which is robust to time-variation in parameters. The proposed method can be applied in-sample and out-of-sample to any economic model based on moment conditions. In-sample, the test selects between two nested model specifications in the presence of parameter instabilities. Out-of-sample, the test can be used to evaluate the performance of model or judgmental forecasts robust to time-variation. The key feature of the proposed test is that it is particularly powerful in the presence of multiple shifts in parameters without imposing a specific form of time-variation. Further, the test statistic provides narrative evidence on which parts of the sample drive the rejection of the null hypothesis. Simulations show that the test is accurately sized in finite samples and is more powerful than tests assuming constant coefficients or a single break if the data-generating process exhibits multiple shifts in parameters. Using the proposed test, I document the presence of short-horizon predictability in the U.S. equity premium during the postwar period. I find evidence of predictability for a large set of variables once time-variation is taken into account. The test further provides evidence of heterogeneity in the location of predictability episodes across variables. The findings explain why traditional tests often fail to uncover predictability in the full sample and why studies that split the sample at different dates often arrive at conflicting results regarding the predictive ability of a wide class of variables.

The paper has been awarded the 7th Economics Job Market Best Paper Award by UniCredit Foundation.

Presentations: European Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society 2020, Spanish Economic Association SAEe Meeting 2020, 40th International Symposium on Forecasting, 7th Barcelona GSE PhD Jamboree, 8th SIdE Workshop for students in Econometrics and Empirical Economics.

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Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence

with Barbara Rossi and Tatevik Sekhposyan

Revise & Resubmit, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Abstract: Does the Federal Reserve have an "information advantage'' in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or also to future information on the state of the economy that the Federal Reserve communicates in its announcements via an "information channel''? This paper investigates the evolution of the information channel over time. Although the information channel appears to be important historically, we find no empirical evidence of its presence in the recent years once instabilities are accounted for.

Summaries: VoxEU CEPR Policy Portal Column, Brookings Hutchins Roundup.

Versions: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper (WP2020-08), CEPR Discussion Paper 14456.

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A lab in the cloud - A serverless framework for conducting online experiments

with Katharina Janezic